Friday, April 13, 2012
Friday, December 31, 2010
SELAMAT MENYAMBUT TAHUN BARU 2011
Pengurusan Genius Global Marketing mengucapkan Selamat Menyambut Lembaran Tahun Baru 2011 dan semoga akan membawa rahmat dan kekayaan untuk kita bersama...khasnya buat pelanggan-pelanggan setia kami...Ameen..,
Saturday, September 4, 2010
You'll buy gold and like it
I get this question a lot: "Should I buy gold now, or wait for a pullback?"
It’s a valid question. For nearly two years, gold hasn't had a serious decline. There have been pullbacks, of course, but nothing assumption-challenging. In fact, since October 2008, gold’s largest price drop is 10.6% (based on London PM fix prices), and yet the average of all declines since 2001 is 13% (of those greater than 5%). The biggest pullback we've seen this summer is 8.2%. Technically the summer's not over, but I'll admit I'm surprised we haven't had a better buying opportunity.
So, is now the time to buy? It depends on your honest answer to another question: “Do you own enough gold?” By “enough” I mean an amount that lends meaningful protection on your assets. By ”meaningful” I mean that no matter what happens next – another financial blow-up, accelerating inflation, crushing deflation, war, a plummeting dollar, more reckless government spending – you won't worry about your investments.
Whether you should buy now is almost irrelevant if you don't already own a meaningful amount of gold. If you earn $50,000 a year, how is one gold Eagle coin going to protect you if the dollar plummets and sends inflation soaring? If your investable assets total $100,000, is your nest egg sufficiently protected owning two gold Maple Leafs? This is all akin to buying a $50,000 insurance policy for a $500,000 home.
Today we face the prospect of prolonged economic stagnation, and most governments are administering grossly abusive monetary policy as a remedy. While some of the consequences are already being felt, the full ramifications have not hit your wallet yet. But they will.
If you don't have at least 10% of your investable assets in physical gold, or at least two months of living expenses, you have your answer: Buy. Don't use leverage, don't borrow money, and don't buy with reckless abandon, but yes, get your asset insurance policy and tuck it away. And then start working toward 20% (we recommend a third of assets be in various forms of gold in Casey's Gold & Resource Report).
Back to the original question: should we buy now, or wait for a pullback?
The answer comes when you look at the big picture. If you pull up a 9-year chart of gold, what sticks out is that the price is near its all-time nominal high. One could be forgiven for thinking it looks toppy or at least ripe for a pullback. But I assert that the highs for gold have yet to be charted.
What will a gold chart look like after adding five years to it?
When projecting gold's potential price peak, there are many ways to measure it. Conservatively, gold reaching its inflation-adjusted 1980 high would have it topping around $2,400 an ounce. More radically, if the U.S. tried to cover its cumulative foreign trade deficit with its current gold holdings, gold would need to hit about $32,000/oz.
Let's take something more middle of the road, and apply the same trough-to-peak percentage advance gold underwent in the 1970s. (I think there's a greater than 50/50 chance it does more than that, given the precarious nature of the U.S. dollar.) Gold rose from $35 in 1970 to $850 in 1980, a factor of 24.28. Our price bottomed in 2001 at $255.95; multiply that by 24.28 and you get a gold price of $6,214 per ounce.
Sound too high? Well, would it feel high if you had to pay $12.50 for a Big Mac? At $3.39 today at my local McDonald's, that's about what it would cost ten years from now if we get the same rate of inflation we had in the late 1970s.
So if gold hits $6,214, what might it look like on a chart if you bought today around $1,200? (Click to enlarge)
I'm not saying there won't be pullbacks or that you shouldn't try to buy at lower prices. Just keep a big-picture perspective. Let's say gold falls to $1,100 and you're kicking yourself for having bought at $1,200… if gold reaches $6,200 an ounce, the profit difference between buying at $1,200 and buying at $1,100 is only 1.6%. If gold gets whacked to $1,000 (at which point I’ll be buying with both hands) the difference is still only 3.2%.
Heck, even if gold peaks at $2,400, you still get a double from current levels. (But unless government monetary policies immediately reverse course, gold isn't stopping at $2,400.)
So there's my answer. Yes, you have to accept my projection of gold's ultimate price plateau. And you have to sell at some point to realize the profit. But if the final chapter of this bull market looks anything like the chart above, I don't think you'll be too upset having bought at $1,200.
Carpe gold.
Disclosure: No positions
About the author: Jeff Clark
It’s a valid question. For nearly two years, gold hasn't had a serious decline. There have been pullbacks, of course, but nothing assumption-challenging. In fact, since October 2008, gold’s largest price drop is 10.6% (based on London PM fix prices), and yet the average of all declines since 2001 is 13% (of those greater than 5%). The biggest pullback we've seen this summer is 8.2%. Technically the summer's not over, but I'll admit I'm surprised we haven't had a better buying opportunity.
So, is now the time to buy? It depends on your honest answer to another question: “Do you own enough gold?” By “enough” I mean an amount that lends meaningful protection on your assets. By ”meaningful” I mean that no matter what happens next – another financial blow-up, accelerating inflation, crushing deflation, war, a plummeting dollar, more reckless government spending – you won't worry about your investments.
Whether you should buy now is almost irrelevant if you don't already own a meaningful amount of gold. If you earn $50,000 a year, how is one gold Eagle coin going to protect you if the dollar plummets and sends inflation soaring? If your investable assets total $100,000, is your nest egg sufficiently protected owning two gold Maple Leafs? This is all akin to buying a $50,000 insurance policy for a $500,000 home.
Today we face the prospect of prolonged economic stagnation, and most governments are administering grossly abusive monetary policy as a remedy. While some of the consequences are already being felt, the full ramifications have not hit your wallet yet. But they will.
If you don't have at least 10% of your investable assets in physical gold, or at least two months of living expenses, you have your answer: Buy. Don't use leverage, don't borrow money, and don't buy with reckless abandon, but yes, get your asset insurance policy and tuck it away. And then start working toward 20% (we recommend a third of assets be in various forms of gold in Casey's Gold & Resource Report).
Back to the original question: should we buy now, or wait for a pullback?
The answer comes when you look at the big picture. If you pull up a 9-year chart of gold, what sticks out is that the price is near its all-time nominal high. One could be forgiven for thinking it looks toppy or at least ripe for a pullback. But I assert that the highs for gold have yet to be charted.
What will a gold chart look like after adding five years to it?
When projecting gold's potential price peak, there are many ways to measure it. Conservatively, gold reaching its inflation-adjusted 1980 high would have it topping around $2,400 an ounce. More radically, if the U.S. tried to cover its cumulative foreign trade deficit with its current gold holdings, gold would need to hit about $32,000/oz.
Let's take something more middle of the road, and apply the same trough-to-peak percentage advance gold underwent in the 1970s. (I think there's a greater than 50/50 chance it does more than that, given the precarious nature of the U.S. dollar.) Gold rose from $35 in 1970 to $850 in 1980, a factor of 24.28. Our price bottomed in 2001 at $255.95; multiply that by 24.28 and you get a gold price of $6,214 per ounce.
Sound too high? Well, would it feel high if you had to pay $12.50 for a Big Mac? At $3.39 today at my local McDonald's, that's about what it would cost ten years from now if we get the same rate of inflation we had in the late 1970s.
So if gold hits $6,214, what might it look like on a chart if you bought today around $1,200? (Click to enlarge)
$1,200 doesn't seem so pricey, does it?
I'm not saying there won't be pullbacks or that you shouldn't try to buy at lower prices. Just keep a big-picture perspective. Let's say gold falls to $1,100 and you're kicking yourself for having bought at $1,200… if gold reaches $6,200 an ounce, the profit difference between buying at $1,200 and buying at $1,100 is only 1.6%. If gold gets whacked to $1,000 (at which point I’ll be buying with both hands) the difference is still only 3.2%.
Heck, even if gold peaks at $2,400, you still get a double from current levels. (But unless government monetary policies immediately reverse course, gold isn't stopping at $2,400.)
So there's my answer. Yes, you have to accept my projection of gold's ultimate price plateau. And you have to sell at some point to realize the profit. But if the final chapter of this bull market looks anything like the chart above, I don't think you'll be too upset having bought at $1,200.
Carpe gold.
Disclosure: No positions
About the author: Jeff Clark
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Gold Prices To Continue Upswing Next Week
13 August 2010, 2:40 p.m.
By Debbie Carlson
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/
Chicago -- (Kitco News) Renewed concerns over the growth of the U.S. and global economies are back to the forefront of traders’ minds and safe-haven plays are likely to continue to lift gold prices next week.
Mixed economic data and the quantitative easing step by the Federal Reserve during Federal Open Market Committee meeting Tuesday have helped gold prices stay above $1,200 this week. Investors are returning to gold after pulling money off the table in July and physical buyers have stepped back as prices gained.
Looking at most gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December contract gained 4.9% since its low set on July 28 of $1,159.30 an ounce to settle at $1,216.60. Nearby October futures rose 5% from its July low of $1,157.50 to settle at $1,215.40.
The rise is coming from investor demand, said Commerzbank and Barclays Capital in separate research notes Friday. Barclays said exchange-traded fund holdings in gold across the board have risen six days in a row, but the gains have not wiped out the big outflows these investments saw in July.
Barclays said gold is comfortable wearing its “currency hat” because of a return to worries over macro economic fears, so investment demand should support prices in the months to come. However, “once market participants are more comfortable with the shape of economic recovery and interest rates start to rise, we then expect some investor interest to start to ease, and subsequently jewelry demand will need to step in to provide a cushion, which we believe will be higher than historical levels,” they said.
Sterling Smith, analyst at Country Hedging, said he thinks gold prices will continue it its uptrend as commodities in general rise. Commodity prices, led by wheat, have rallied lately. There has been some concern that the sharp rally in grain prices because of a severe drought in Russia and neighboring countries could spark food inflation. However, Smith said that’s still a wait-and-see. Wheat supplies elsewhere, especially in the U.S. are still ample.
Plus, he said, there’s a question on how easily food companies can pass along those costs.
Smith said the technical picture for gold is turning bullish. He pointed to a reverse head and shoulders pattern for October Comex gold which could push prices to about $1,240 if gold can stay above $1,220. He said strong support for gold is seen at the $1,200-$1,210.
He expects gold to target its previous all time highs set in June, but probably not until September at the earliest. “August is too soon. With summertime trading you have to be careful,” he said, because thin volumes can make trading more volatile.
While gold benefitted from the renewed worries of an economic slowdown, base metals like copper saw their recent gains curbed. Bart Melek, global commodity strategist at Bank of Montreal, said unless the markets see real signs that demand isn’t falling and a double-dip recession won’t occur, industrial commodity prices in general – base metals included – will not move higher “on a sustainable basis.”
He also said for base metals to rise the Chinese government needs to signal it isn’t going to slow its economy further, along with more U.S. government spending and quantitative easing. Longer-term he expects both to happen, along with the possibility of new Chinese stimulus “in the not too distant future.” Those actions would ignite global growth, which BMO puts at just under 4% in 2010 and 2011, with China averaging near 10%. That would lift industrial commodities into 2011, and gold will benefit, too. “Having it both ways, gold should do well as record low interest rates will likely ignite long-term inflation concerns once the economy stabilizes,” he said.
Smith said the outlook for copper will be news-dependent. Chinese economic data will be key and copper received some positive news after strong German growth in the second quarter. The German gross domestic product increased 2.2% in the second quarter, the fastest in 20 years. Some analysts caution though, the rise came at the expense of the drop in the euro, so third quarter growth will likely not be as strong.
While there are some furrowed brows out there over the state of the U.S. economy, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig doesn’t have one. In fact, Friday he said keeping U.S. interest rates at zero were “a dangerous gamble” during moderate growth and said deflation is not a problem. According to MarketWatch, Hoenig has dissented at every Fed policy meeting and said the Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, and his allies were trying to use monetary policy as a “cure-all” for U.S. woes.
Gold did not react too much to his comments, however.
By Debbie Carlson, contributing to Kitco News;dcarlson@kitco.com
Editor’s Note: Meet the Kitco News Team at the upcoming Kitco Metals eConference September 12-13, 2010. A not-to-be missed event featuring Ron Paul, Marc Faber and other industry heavyweights. The eConference is free with Pre- Registration www.kitcoeconf.com.
By Debbie Carlson
Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/
Chicago -- (Kitco News) Renewed concerns over the growth of the U.S. and global economies are back to the forefront of traders’ minds and safe-haven plays are likely to continue to lift gold prices next week.
Mixed economic data and the quantitative easing step by the Federal Reserve during Federal Open Market Committee meeting Tuesday have helped gold prices stay above $1,200 this week. Investors are returning to gold after pulling money off the table in July and physical buyers have stepped back as prices gained.
Looking at most gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December contract gained 4.9% since its low set on July 28 of $1,159.30 an ounce to settle at $1,216.60. Nearby October futures rose 5% from its July low of $1,157.50 to settle at $1,215.40.
The rise is coming from investor demand, said Commerzbank and Barclays Capital in separate research notes Friday. Barclays said exchange-traded fund holdings in gold across the board have risen six days in a row, but the gains have not wiped out the big outflows these investments saw in July.
Barclays said gold is comfortable wearing its “currency hat” because of a return to worries over macro economic fears, so investment demand should support prices in the months to come. However, “once market participants are more comfortable with the shape of economic recovery and interest rates start to rise, we then expect some investor interest to start to ease, and subsequently jewelry demand will need to step in to provide a cushion, which we believe will be higher than historical levels,” they said.
Sterling Smith, analyst at Country Hedging, said he thinks gold prices will continue it its uptrend as commodities in general rise. Commodity prices, led by wheat, have rallied lately. There has been some concern that the sharp rally in grain prices because of a severe drought in Russia and neighboring countries could spark food inflation. However, Smith said that’s still a wait-and-see. Wheat supplies elsewhere, especially in the U.S. are still ample.
Plus, he said, there’s a question on how easily food companies can pass along those costs.
Smith said the technical picture for gold is turning bullish. He pointed to a reverse head and shoulders pattern for October Comex gold which could push prices to about $1,240 if gold can stay above $1,220. He said strong support for gold is seen at the $1,200-$1,210.
He expects gold to target its previous all time highs set in June, but probably not until September at the earliest. “August is too soon. With summertime trading you have to be careful,” he said, because thin volumes can make trading more volatile.
While gold benefitted from the renewed worries of an economic slowdown, base metals like copper saw their recent gains curbed. Bart Melek, global commodity strategist at Bank of Montreal, said unless the markets see real signs that demand isn’t falling and a double-dip recession won’t occur, industrial commodity prices in general – base metals included – will not move higher “on a sustainable basis.”
He also said for base metals to rise the Chinese government needs to signal it isn’t going to slow its economy further, along with more U.S. government spending and quantitative easing. Longer-term he expects both to happen, along with the possibility of new Chinese stimulus “in the not too distant future.” Those actions would ignite global growth, which BMO puts at just under 4% in 2010 and 2011, with China averaging near 10%. That would lift industrial commodities into 2011, and gold will benefit, too. “Having it both ways, gold should do well as record low interest rates will likely ignite long-term inflation concerns once the economy stabilizes,” he said.
Smith said the outlook for copper will be news-dependent. Chinese economic data will be key and copper received some positive news after strong German growth in the second quarter. The German gross domestic product increased 2.2% in the second quarter, the fastest in 20 years. Some analysts caution though, the rise came at the expense of the drop in the euro, so third quarter growth will likely not be as strong.
While there are some furrowed brows out there over the state of the U.S. economy, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig doesn’t have one. In fact, Friday he said keeping U.S. interest rates at zero were “a dangerous gamble” during moderate growth and said deflation is not a problem. According to MarketWatch, Hoenig has dissented at every Fed policy meeting and said the Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, and his allies were trying to use monetary policy as a “cure-all” for U.S. woes.
Gold did not react too much to his comments, however.
By Debbie Carlson, contributing to Kitco News;dcarlson@kitco.com
Editor’s Note: Meet the Kitco News Team at the upcoming Kitco Metals eConference September 12-13, 2010. A not-to-be missed event featuring Ron Paul, Marc Faber and other industry heavyweights. The eConference is free with Pre- Registration www.kitcoeconf.com.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
TAHNIAH DAN SELAMAT DATANG KEPADA AGEN BARU, EN AZMAN DAN CKG NAZUIN
Kami mengucapkan syabas dan SELAMAT DATANG kpd agen rangkaian GENIUS GLOBAL;
EN AZMAN (SENAI), 019-7366108
CIKGU NAZUIN (LARKIN), 019-7410115
Pada anda yang membaca blog kami dan tinggal berdekatan dgn agen kami di atas serta berminat untuk mengetahui lanjut tentang dinar/emas Public Gold bolehlah menghubungi mereka..beli dan simpan dinar/emas sebelum terlambat...MASA ITU EMAS...keputusan di tangan anda...
EN AZMAN (SENAI), 019-7366108
CIKGU NAZUIN (LARKIN), 019-7410115
Pada anda yang membaca blog kami dan tinggal berdekatan dgn agen kami di atas serta berminat untuk mengetahui lanjut tentang dinar/emas Public Gold bolehlah menghubungi mereka..beli dan simpan dinar/emas sebelum terlambat...MASA ITU EMAS...keputusan di tangan anda...
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Selamat datang dan Tahniah kpd Agen baru Public Gold rangkaian Genius Global Mktg
TAHNIAH dari kami!kpd Pn SHAHEDAH BT IDRIS AHMAD (HP 019-7526762) krn telah menjadi AGENT BARU PUBLIC GOLD dr rangkaian Genius Global Gold area Layang-Layang Kulai............
Sesiapa yg ingin mengetahui lanjut ttg EMAS PUBLIC GOLD atau berminat utk memiliki EMAS PUBLIC GOLD di kawasan KULAI , boleh berhubung dgn beliau....
Sesiapa yg ingin mengetahui lanjut ttg EMAS PUBLIC GOLD atau berminat utk memiliki EMAS PUBLIC GOLD di kawasan KULAI , boleh berhubung dgn beliau....
Saturday, May 29, 2010
BELI DAN SIMPAN EMAS FIZIKAL SEBELUM TERLAMBAT
krisis kewangan seperti us dollars dan euro serta apa yg berlaku di greek dan begitu juga apa yg telah di umumkan oleh Idris Jala pd Jumaat lepas di akhbar(28/5/2010), semoga ianya boleh dijadikan iktibar oleh kita semua...agar bersiap sedia utk menghadapi krisis ekonomi global, EMAS FIZIKAL adalah aset atau pelaburan terbaik bagi melindungi wang tunai yg kita simpan selama ini diatas usaha kita yg bekerja keras siang dan malam,contoh> jika kita mempunyai simpanan di bank,rm100k atau rm1 juta pun belum tentu menjamin kekayaan yg kita ada...kerana nilai wang tersebut akan menyusut disebabkan faktor Inflasi(kenaikan kadar faedah,petrol,kenaikan harga semua jenis barangan dan kos operasi dan transport)..kata pakar kewangan, kita mesti menyimpan dlm bentuk aset EMAS FIZIKAL(dinar/emas 999.9) sekurang2nya 30% dari nilai simpanan TUNAI yg ada..HUBUNGI kami sekarang!!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)